Two tropical waves are showing signs for potential development, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
One system in the Caribbean has been designated as Invest 94l.
"This system is a bit farther south than Alberto ... since it will encounter much more land over a longer period of time, it likely has only a low chance of development spanning June 28-30," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead tropical meteorologist.
The second tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic. At 2 p.m., forecasters said this system could become a tropical depression by the end of the week or over the weekend.
The next storm of the season will be Beryl.
Early July typically quiet in tropics. When could activity increase?
While Saharan dust moving west over the Atlantic makes it difficult for storms to develop and strengthen, there's still a chance for development of the system closer to the United States.
"A vast area of dry air, wind shear and an expanding shield of dust from the Sahara Desert in Africa will be the main deterrents for tropical development into the first part of July," DaSilva said.
"The historical average for named tropical systems through mid-July is only two, with the first during mid to late June," DaSilva said, "so historically you only get one more named system over the next two to three weeks, and we don't see much out there to differentiate against that at this time."
Tropical waves of low pressure will continue to roll west from Africa in the coming weeks and on through the heart of the Atlantic hurricane season into the early autumn, according to AccuWeather.
"Around the July Fourth holiday, some information suggests one of those tropical waves may become a little more robust as it approaches the Lesser Antilles in the eastern Caribbean," DaSilva said.
Busy hurricane season expected in 2024
Every forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is predicting an above-normal season. The average number of named storms in a season is 14. AccuWeather forecasters have gone as far as saying 2024 could break the record of 30 named storms.
The presence of La Niña is a big factor in why every forecasting agency has beenpredicting a very active Atlantic hurricane seasonthis year.
It doesn't help we're seeing record warm water temperatures in the Atlantic, which also provide fuel for tropical cyclones.
NOAA said May 2024 was the14th consecutive month of record-warm global ocean temperatures.
Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 2 p.m. June 26:
Where is Invest 94L? Will it become tropical storm?
Invest 94L: A tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized shower activity while it moves rapidly west at around 25 mph.
Environmental conditions could become more conducive for some gradual development in a couple of days over the western Caribbean Sea or over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, low 10 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: low, 20 percent.
Spaghetti models for Invest 94L
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Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
What else is out there and how likely is it to strengthen?
Eastern tropical wave: A tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Some development is possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form over the tropicalAtlantic by the end of the week or this weekend while the system moves west at 15 to 20 mph.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 10 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 40 percent.
The National Hurricane Center is keeping an eye on a total of four tropical waves, including two in the Caribbean Sea.
- First wave: A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is located southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. It's moving west at 6 to 11 mph.
- Second wave: A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is moving west at 6 to 11 mph.
- Third wave: A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean extends from the eastern tip of Hispaniola south to western Venezuela. It's moving west at 11 mph.
- Fourth wave: A tropical wave in the western Caribbean extends from near the Providencia and Santa Catalina Islands south toward western Panama and into the Pacific Ocean. It's moving west at 11 mph.
Who is likely to be impacted?
It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to Florida or the U.S. from the tropical waves.
Forecasters urge all residents to continuemonitoring the tropics and to always be prepared. That advice is particularly important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's next?
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